Sunk Cost Bias
Open Access

Sunk Cost Bias

We’re unable to let go of our past bad investments, even if it makes sense to do so

When we’ve spent lots of time or money on a project that we now realise is failing, we find it hard to draw the line and cut our losses.

Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 35(1), 124-140.

The study

Impact

The problem

Potential impact

The study

The studies

Setup

Setup

108 people were told they were the head of an airline that was either 90% complete on a $10m plane project, or shown an equivalent $1m proposal to research and develop this plane. In both cases, a competitor had created a similar plane of superior quality.

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Results

Results

In either case, should they still invest the $1m? Those in the 90% sunk cost condition were far more likely to keep on spending than those who had yet to invest anything.

Study graph

Setup

108 people were told they were the head of an airline that was either 90% complete on a $10m plane project, or shown an equivalent $1m proposal to research and develop this plane. In both cases, a competitor had created a similar plane of superior quality.

Results

In either case, should they still invest the $1m? Those in the 90% sunk cost condition were far more likely to keep on spending than those who had yet to invest anything.

Study graph

Setup

Results

Study graph

Setup

Results

Study graph

Setup

Results

Study graph
np_read_2490885_000000

Jerome's Expert View

Key Takeaways

1
1

Remind consumers of past personal efforts or the amount of time spent with the brand to increase feelings of a sunk cost. Reframing past efforts as incomplete or as ongoing progress will also induce the effect and assist sales. 

Takeaway image
2
2

Test your product ideas sooner using a more agile product methodology. This will minimize time, cost and effort wasted on unproven potential failures to which you will become increasingly attached, especially if you’re personally accountable for their success.

Takeaway image
3
3

Take 15 mins for mindfulness practice - focusing on the present moment and less on the past and future - to increase your resistance to the Sunk Cost bias. (Hafenbrack et al., 2013). Check out the Headspace app. 

Takeaway image
4
4
Takeaway image
Takeaway image

Boundary conditions

No items found.

Future questions

No items found.
np_read_2490885_000000

Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 35(1), 124-140.

Sunk Cost Bias

Sunk Cost Bias

We’re unable to let go of our past bad investments, even if it makes sense to do so

When we’ve spent lots of time or money on a project that we now realise is failing, we find it hard to draw the line and cut our losses.

The study

Setup

108 people were told they were the head of an airline that was either 90% complete on a $10m plane project, or shown an equivalent $1m proposal to research and develop this plane. In both cases, a competitor had created a similar plane of superior quality.

Results

In either case, should they still invest the $1m? Those in the 90% sunk cost condition were far more likely to keep on spending than those who had yet to invest anything.

study graph

Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 35(1), 124-140.

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We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it

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Default Effect

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Nuggets

Snack on these...

Open access, foundational Nuggets

Scarcity

Scarcity

We value things more when they’re in limited supply

Social Proof

Social Proof

We copy the behaviors of others, especially in unfamiliar situations

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory

A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good

Reciprocity

Reciprocity

We’re hardwired to return kindness received

Framing

Framing

We make very different decisions based on how a fact is presented

Loss Aversion

Loss Aversion

We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it

Self-Expression

Self-Expression

We constantly seek out ways to communicate our identity to others

Default Effect

Default Effect

We tend to accept the option pre-chosen for us

Priming

Priming

Our decisions are shaped by memories recalled from things just seen or heard

Anchoring

Anchoring

What we see first affects our judgement of everything thereafter

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