Prospect Theory
Open Access

Prospect Theory

A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good

We take more risks to avoid the pain of loss. The more we gain, however, the fewer risks we continue to take and the less we feel with each gain.

Kahneman & Tversky (1979). Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 263-292.

The study

Impact

The problem

Potential impact

The study

The studies

Setup

Setup

Prospect theory is explained with a graph. Negative losses and positive gains recorded on the horizontal are set against a vertical intensity of feeling for those losses or gains.

What’s a Rich Text element?

The rich text element allows you to create and format headings, paragraphs, blockquotes, images, and video all in one place instead of having to add and format them individually. Just double-click and easily create content.

Static and dynamic content editing

A rich text element can be used with static or dynamic content. For static content, just drop it into any page and begin editing. For dynamic content, add a rich text field to any collection and then connect a rich text element to that field in the settings panel. Voila!

How to customize formatting for each rich text

Headings, paragraphs, blockquotes, figures, images, and figure captions can all be styled after a class is added to the rich text element using the "When inside of" nested selector system.

Results

Results

As we gain more, we feel less for each gain. In contrast, even a small pain (shown in red) feels a lot more negative than an equal-sized gain feels good.

Study graph

Setup

Prospect theory is explained with a graph. Negative losses and positive gains recorded on the horizontal are set against a vertical intensity of feeling for those losses or gains.

Results

As we gain more, we feel less for each gain. In contrast, even a small pain (shown in red) feels a lot more negative than an equal-sized gain feels good.

Study graph

Setup

Results

Study graph

Setup

Results

Study graph

Setup

Results

Study graph
np_read_2490885_000000

Jerome's Expert View

Key Takeaways

1
1

Package pain. Consumers will feel less overall pain from any costs incurred when you package and deliver them all together rather than when they're felt as separate, smaller pains.

Takeaway image
2
2

Spread out rewards.

Instead of offering larger, chunkier benefits to consumers, break these down into smaller pieces, spreading them out across time.

$10 given 4 times feels more valuable overall than $40 given once.

Takeaway image
3
3

Offer mixed product bundles.

We feel less good with each thing we consume. Therefore, the first can of soda tastes better than the fourth.

This means we'd get more complimentary value from a bag of chips instead.

Look for ways to offer relevant, mixed product bundles to offset diminishing consumer sensitivity.

Takeaway image
4
4
Takeaway image
Takeaway image

Boundary conditions

No items found.

Future questions

No items found.
np_read_2490885_000000

Kahneman & Tversky (1979). Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 263-292.

You’re walking down the street. Consider two realities:

A: You unexpectedly find $10 in your pocket. 

You feel positively-surprised!

Or:

B: You left the house with $10 in your pocket.

But you reach in and it’s gone.

The pain you feel from its loss is greater than the good feeling of finding it.

Prospect Theory explains that our perceptions of value differ based on how something is framed, and losing things feels worse than getting them feels good.

As one of the grand concepts that underpinned a lot of the early ideas within behavioral science, Prospect Theory is a beast with many aspects to it, such as Loss Aversion, Framing, Certainty, and Risk.

But for now, take your practical understanding a step further by reading the Aggregation Effect and Segregation Effect Nuggets.

Coglode Live

Coglode Live

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory

A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good

We take more risks to avoid the pain of loss. The more we gain, however, the fewer risks we continue to take and the less we feel with each gain.

The study

Setup

Prospect theory is explained with a graph. Negative losses and positive gains recorded on the horizontal are set against a vertical intensity of feeling for those losses or gains.

Results

As we gain more, we feel less for each gain. In contrast, even a small pain (shown in red) feels a lot more negative than an equal-sized gain feels good.

study graph

Kahneman & Tversky (1979). Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 263-292.

You’re walking down the street. Consider two realities:

A: You unexpectedly find $10 in your pocket. 

You feel positively-surprised!

Or:

B: You left the house with $10 in your pocket.

But you reach in and it’s gone.

The pain you feel from its loss is greater than the good feeling of finding it.

Prospect Theory explains that our perceptions of value differ based on how something is framed, and losing things feels worse than getting them feels good.

As one of the grand concepts that underpinned a lot of the early ideas within behavioral science, Prospect Theory is a beast with many aspects to it, such as Loss Aversion, Framing, Certainty, and Risk.

But for now, take your practical understanding a step further by reading the Aggregation Effect and Segregation Effect Nuggets.

Hungry for more?

Currently being sourced...
Nuggets

Snack on these...

Open access, foundational Nuggets

Scarcity

Scarcity

We value things more when they’re in limited supply

Social Proof

Social Proof

We copy the behaviors of others, especially in unfamiliar situations

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory

A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good

Reciprocity

Reciprocity

We’re hardwired to return kindness received

Framing

Framing

We make very different decisions based on how a fact is presented

Loss Aversion

Loss Aversion

We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it

Self-Expression

Self-Expression

We constantly seek out ways to communicate our identity to others

Default Effect

Default Effect

We tend to accept the option pre-chosen for us

Priming

Priming

Our decisions are shaped by memories recalled from things just seen or heard

Anchoring

Anchoring

What we see first affects our judgement of everything thereafter

Connected to

All Nuggets, data & takeaways

Academic data

Key takeaways

Pairings

Cheat Sheets

Collect Nuggets

Nuggets In The Wild

Monthly Coglode Live calls

Hungry for more?

Savour all of Coglode Cookbook

Sign up
Launching 2025

Work directly with me

As the creator of Coglode, I'll be bringing all my behavioural tools to a small number of external projects next year.

Jerome Ribot

Coglode Founder

Enquire
© 2013-24 Coglode
Nuggets

Snack on these...

Open access, foundational Nuggets

Scarcity

Scarcity

We value things more when they’re in limited supply

Social Proof

Social Proof

We copy the behaviors of others, especially in unfamiliar situations

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory

A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good

Reciprocity

Reciprocity

We’re hardwired to return kindness received

Framing

Framing

We make very different decisions based on how a fact is presented

Loss Aversion

Loss Aversion

We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it

Self-Expression

Self-Expression

We constantly seek out ways to communicate our identity to others

Default Effect

Default Effect

We tend to accept the option pre-chosen for us

Priming

Priming

Our decisions are shaped by memories recalled from things just seen or heard

Anchoring

Anchoring

What we see first affects our judgement of everything thereafter

What's Cooking?

New Pairing

A Monzo case study on saving refunds by default
A Monzo case study on saving refunds by default
This week

New Nugget

Refund Effect (2024)
Refund Effect (2024)
This week

Improvement

New Nugget 2.0 schematic
New Nugget 2.0 schematic
This week

New Nugget In The Wild

How Experian's CreditLock creates calm with well-designed control
How Experian's CreditLock creates calm with well-designed control
This week

New Cheat Sheet

New "Overcoming Status Quo" Cheat Sheet
New "Overcoming Status Quo" Cheat Sheet
This week

Improvement

Simplified navigation
Simplified navigation
This week

Improvement

After ten years, just who is behind Coglode?
After ten years, just who is behind Coglode?
This week

Feature

Interactive Defaults Tool released
Interactive Defaults Tool released
This week

Coglode Live

Defaults Live video and deck now available
Defaults Live video and deck now available
This week

Cure

Cancelling Amazon Prime - An interactive, behavioural remedy
Cancelling Amazon Prime - An interactive, behavioural remedy
This week

New Nugget In The Wild

How new browser Arc overcomes Status Quo bias with Boosts and Zaps
How new browser Arc overcomes Status Quo bias with Boosts and Zaps
This week

New Cheat Sheet

New "Overcoming Risk Aversion" Cheat Sheet
New "Overcoming Risk Aversion" Cheat Sheet
This week