Refund Effect
Open Access

Refund Effect

We spend refunds more than other money

Because it’s already earmarked for spending and free from obligation, money refunded from a purchase is more likely to be spent over other income we receive.

Yu, T., Cryder, C., & LeBoeuf, R. A. (2024). Refund psychology. Journal of Consumer Research, 51(2), 238-255.

The study

Impact

The problem

Refunds are a major, growing headache for retailers, costing $816bn a year (16.5% of all sales).

Potential impact

Lets turn the refund problem into higher retail sales and groundbreaking financial products.

The study

The studies

Setup

Setup

600 people were randomly assigned to either a payment or refund group and told that they’d received $20 for their research efforts.

Importantly, those in the refund condition were also told that they’d spent this $20 on a shirt, which they’d then returned and got refunded.

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Results

Results

Both were then offered the chance to buy some headphones for $20.

Those in the refund condition were much more likely to buy.

Study graph

1. Refunds make us spend more

Setup

600 people were randomly assigned to either a payment or refund group and told that they’d received $20 for their research efforts.

Importantly, those in the refund condition were also told that they’d spent this $20 on a shirt, which they’d then returned and got refunded.

Results

Both were then offered the chance to buy some headphones for $20.

Those in the refund condition were much more likely to buy.

Study graph

2. Refunds make us feel richer

Setup

399 people were either given money from a just-refunded product or simply extra money to spend. They were then asked how likely they'd use this money to buy some headphones.

Results

They were more likely to buy headphones using refund money over new money to spend, despite this second group being better off!

Study graph

3. Refunds feel like free money

Setup

400 people were split into two groups, with one presented with money framed as a refund and the other as a tax windfall.

Results

Those in the refund frame were more likely to buy an iPad than those given a tax windfall.


This is because refunds feel more free from obligations than tax windfalls do, because we've already got plans for the windfall.

Study graph

4. Refunded essentials need to be replaced

Setup

500 people were told they’d bought a printer that they’d returned and got refunded.

They were split into two groups with the printer needing replacing or not, and were asked how likely they’d use the refund to buy an air fryer.

Results

People were much less likely to spend refunded money from a printer on an air fryer when the printer was framed as needing to be replaced.

This obligation to replace an essential purchase forms a boundary condition for the Refund Effect.

Study graph
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Jerome's Expert View

Key Takeaways

1
1

Retailers (simple):

Help customers close the loop on an incomplete purchase.

A refund is an unfinished task, causing initial disappointment followed by confusion about what to do next.

Provide recent refunders with a suggested alternative that's desirable, quick to arrive and pre-validated with strong social proof.

Takeaway image
2
2

Retailers (advanced):

Provide a unique moment to buy an item from our own Wishlist.

In the week after a refund has been fully processed, highlight any items that are on limited promotion to motivate respend.

Ensure that the offer is attractive and priced similarly to the refund.

Takeaway image
3
3

Banks:

Protect savers from the Refund Effect to help them reach their goals.

To help us control our spending and make refunds feel less like free, spendable money, banks should provide a feature that auto-saves any refunds we receive.

This would supercharge the sort of savings Monzo Bank customers see from their successful Round-ups feature.

Takeaway image
4
4
Takeaway image
Takeaway image

Boundary conditions

1. Accidental purchases

Accidental purchases aren't earmarked.

Say you bought two sets of headphones, the second accidental pair wouldn’t be earmarked as spending money and therefore wouldn’t be re-spent.

2. Essential purchases

We're obliged to replace essential products upon refund.

Because of this, the Refund Effect works more for discretionary purchases (e.g. clothes) and less for essential ones (e.g. a work computer).

Future questions

1. Does the Refund Effect decay over time? ‍

Say you got a refund a month ago.

Are you less likely to spend it than if you got it in the past week?

My intuition is yes.

Why? Because over time, the refund will lose its mental accounting tag and blend back into your general balance, if not actively segmented and made salient somehow on, say, a customer account dashboard.

If so, timing really does matter on when you follow up with customers.

2. How does purchase size affect the Refund Effect? ‍‍

Is there a sweet spot for purchase sizes where spending the refund is more likely, like refunds on smaller items costing $10-100?

And is it less likely if the purchase is a large enough chunk of one's monthly salary like, say, a plane ticket costing $1000?

Given its cost, will we even categorise it as 'spending money' if the flight gets cancelled and we're refunded?

These questions aren't covered in the paper, yet the answers could become important boundary conditions.

However, my hunch is that the larger the purchase size, proportionally, in relation to our general income, the less we're likely to respend that refund.

It'll simply have too many alternative obligations attached.

3. Is it better to match offers with refund amounts?

Say you get a refund for some shoes for $40. Are you more likely to spend that money on another item if it's for the same $40 price?

My hunch is yes: retailers are best suited to promote items of equivalent value ($40), primarily to ease cognitive processing.

However, it would be interesting to see implementations that also promote an upsell to, say, a $60 item, because it'll feel like we're only really spending $20.

4. Is there some Loss Aversion at play?‍

I do wonder if there's some discomfort experienced in having to return an item, related to a loss of self-identity?

Check out the Self-Expression Deep-Dive for more on this.

If so, is our greater desire to spend the refunded money on a similar or even a superior substitute a way of cancelling out this grief?

np_read_2490885_000000

Yu, T., Cryder, C., & LeBoeuf, R. A. (2024). Refund psychology. Journal of Consumer Research, 51(2), 238-255.

Refund Effect

Refund Effect

We spend refunds more than other money

Because it’s already earmarked for spending and free from obligation, money refunded from a purchase is more likely to be spent over other income we receive.

The study

Setup

600 people were randomly assigned to either a payment or refund group and told that they’d received $20 for their research efforts.

Importantly, those in the refund condition were also told that they’d spent this $20 on a shirt, which they’d then returned and got refunded.

Results

Both were then offered the chance to buy some headphones for $20.

Those in the refund condition were much more likely to buy.

study graph

Yu, T., Cryder, C., & LeBoeuf, R. A. (2024). Refund psychology. Journal of Consumer Research, 51(2), 238-255.

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Nuggets

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Open access, foundational Nuggets

Scarcity

Scarcity

We value things more when they’re in limited supply

Social Proof

Social Proof

We copy the behaviors of others, especially in unfamiliar situations

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory

A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good

Reciprocity

Reciprocity

We’re hardwired to return kindness received

Framing

Framing

We make very different decisions based on how a fact is presented

Loss Aversion

Loss Aversion

We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it

Self-Expression

Self-Expression

We constantly seek out ways to communicate our identity to others

Default Effect

Default Effect

We tend to accept the option pre-chosen for us

Priming

Priming

Our decisions are shaped by memories recalled from things just seen or heard

Anchoring

Anchoring

What we see first affects our judgement of everything thereafter

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© 2013-24 Coglode
Nuggets

Snack on these...

Open access, foundational Nuggets

Scarcity

Scarcity

We value things more when they’re in limited supply

Social Proof

Social Proof

We copy the behaviors of others, especially in unfamiliar situations

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory

A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good

Reciprocity

Reciprocity

We’re hardwired to return kindness received

Framing

Framing

We make very different decisions based on how a fact is presented

Loss Aversion

Loss Aversion

We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it

Self-Expression

Self-Expression

We constantly seek out ways to communicate our identity to others

Default Effect

Default Effect

We tend to accept the option pre-chosen for us

Priming

Priming

Our decisions are shaped by memories recalled from things just seen or heard

Anchoring

Anchoring

What we see first affects our judgement of everything thereafter

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