We crave clarity over chance and make costly sacrifices to get it
Guaranteed inferior gains are valued over superior ones that have some risk. When faced with uncertain times, certainty is a feeling that we place a premium on.
Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.
Impact
The study
The studies
77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.
78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).
77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.
78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).
Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.
Jerome's Expert View
Key Takeaways
Certainty is valued highly.
What ways can your business create reassurance or guarantees that make consumers feel safe? How can you use exclusive certainty to reward and foster a sense of status with your brand?
Stick to your promises!
Letting consumers down, even once, will trigger uncertainty in the quality perceptions of your brand. If making claims about being the best at something, don’t ever give consumers reason to question that and turn a selling point into an unsustainable headache.
Reframe uncertain offers to appear certain.
The uncertain frame here requires consumers to calculate proportional savings, but the certain frame removes this by showing certainty of a zero-priced third lemon.
Boundary conditions
Future questions
We crave clarity over chance and make costly sacrifices to get it
Guaranteed inferior gains are valued over superior ones that have some risk. When faced with uncertain times, certainty is a feeling that we place a premium on.
Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.
The study
Impact
The study
The studies
77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.
78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).
77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.
78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).
Jerome's Expert View
Key Takeaways
Certainty is valued highly.
What ways can your business create reassurance or guarantees that make consumers feel safe? How can you use exclusive certainty to reward and foster a sense of status with your brand?
Stick to your promises!
Letting consumers down, even once, will trigger uncertainty in the quality perceptions of your brand. If making claims about being the best at something, don’t ever give consumers reason to question that and turn a selling point into an unsustainable headache.
Reframe uncertain offers to appear certain.
The uncertain frame here requires consumers to calculate proportional savings, but the certain frame removes this by showing certainty of a zero-priced third lemon.
Boundary conditions
Future questions
Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.
We crave clarity over chance and make costly sacrifices to get it
Guaranteed inferior gains are valued over superior ones that have some risk. When faced with uncertain times, certainty is a feeling that we place a premium on.
The study
77 people were asked to choose between an entirely certain win of $30 and an uncertain 80% chance of winning $45.
78% of people opted for the significantly smaller, certain reward, despite the risk-adjusted payout being higher for the uncertain reward (0.8 * $45 = $36).
Kahneman & Tversky (1981). The Framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science. 211 (4481): 453–458.
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Read moreScarcity
We value things more when they’re in limited supply
Social Proof
We copy the behaviors of others, especially in unfamiliar situations
Prospect Theory
A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good
Reciprocity
We’re hardwired to return kindness received
Framing
We make very different decisions based on how a fact is presented
Loss Aversion
We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it
Self-Expression
We constantly seek out ways to communicate our identity to others
Default Effect
We tend to accept the option pre-chosen for us
Priming
Our decisions are shaped by memories recalled from things just seen or heard
Anchoring
What we see first affects our judgement of everything thereafter
Scarcity
We value things more when they’re in limited supply
Social Proof
We copy the behaviors of others, especially in unfamiliar situations
Prospect Theory
A loss hurts more than an equal gain feels good
Reciprocity
We’re hardwired to return kindness received
Framing
We make very different decisions based on how a fact is presented
Loss Aversion
We feel more negative when losing something than positive when we get it
Self-Expression
We constantly seek out ways to communicate our identity to others
Default Effect
We tend to accept the option pre-chosen for us
Priming
Our decisions are shaped by memories recalled from things just seen or heard
Anchoring
What we see first affects our judgement of everything thereafter